UMA AVALIAÇÃO DO IMPACTO DA VARIAÇÃO DO DOLAR SOBRE O ÍNDICE NACIONAL DA CONSTRUÇÃO CIVIL

Descrição e Termos:

There is a builder`s belief that the National Index of the Building – INCC, is significantly affected by the quotations of the American Dollar in Brazil. The present work intends to examine the occurrence of transmission of prices of the DOLLAR for INCC, through a transfer function, in agreement with the dynamic process referred by Box, Jenkins and Reinsel (1994). Initially, will be made a description of the methodology used to reach the established objectives, including the identification processes, estimate and diagnosis, after it, will be made a discussion of the obtained results. At the end is showed that the transmission of the variations in the quotation of the DOLLAR on INCC is statistically insignificant, in the period after Real-Plan, being observed however, that there is a strong series autoregressive memory.

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